Free CFB Pick for Saturday 11/6

CFB Free Picks Record: 1-1

Purdue Boilermakers (+3) over Michigan State Spartans

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Twitter: @BoilerFootball

This is our “hold your nose and press submit” bet of the week! This line flat-out stinks! Why is big bad #3 Michigan State only a three-point favorite over lowly Purdue? Remember what your Mama told you, “If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.” That is definitely the case with this line on Michigan State.

The Spartans are a great story with a fantastic running back in Kenneth Walker. However, they are a bit overrated when you do a deep dive into both their statistical profile and their schedule. Purdue has played the 10th toughest schedule in the nation while Michigan State’s strength of schedule is only 47th. Let’s not forget that Sparty barely squeaked past both Indiana and Nebraska.

The main reason we love Purdue is that this is the mother of all flat spots for Michigan State. The Spartans overcame a 16-point deficit to take down their hated rival Michigan last week. We all know they partied all week long after that big win! Can you say hangover city?

Purdue’s defense is also very underrated. This unit is excellent at getting off the field on 3rd downs so they should be able to slow down Michigan State’s offense a bit in this game. Purdue is ranked 9th in points per game allowed (17.1) and 8th in passing yards allowed per game.

Our power rating for this game is Michigan State -1 but that doesn’t factor in the terrible spot or the weak strength of schedule. The Boilers already upset #2 Iowa a few weeks ago so they won’t be intimidated in this game. We think Purdue wins outright! Take the points and Good luck!

Skybox Journalist

Mike has been involved with sports for over 30 years. He played college baseball and has been betting on sports for more than 20 years. He has a degree in Sports Psychology and covers the NFL and College Football for SkyBox Capping Club.