Our Free Pick on Northern Illinois got the cash in overtime last night which gave us back-to-back winners! We’ll look to keep the positive momentum rolling with our Free NFL Pick for the Patriots vs. Falcons game on Thursday Night Football. We don’t see any value on the side but we do like the total tonight!
Patriots / Falcons UNDER 47
We feel this line is a bit inflated due to New England’s recent offensive outbursts. Our numbers have this total at around 44 so we’ll jump on the Under here and root for lots of punts and defense! Here are a few things to like about the Under in this spot!
Lack of Explosiveness
Neither of these teams has a very explosive offense. Sure, the Pats may average 27.5 points per game but they seem to do it with lots of long drives that take time off the clock. New England averages 5.6 yards per play (16th in the league). That’s not a terrible number, but they don’t have the quick-strike type of offense that one would need if betting the Over.
On the Atlanta side, this offense has been in disarray most of the season. Matt Ryan has played decently but he doesn’t have many playmakers to get the ball to, especially since Calvin Ridley is OUT for the rest of the year. Kyle Pitts will be a great tight end one day but for whatever reason, the Falcons have been unable to get him the ball very much.
The Falcons only average 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 25th. This team has all kinds of problems putting up points, as they average less than 20 per game. As a general rule, to hit an Over, you need both teams to do a bit of scoring. That is not the case in this game.
Mediocre Red Zone Offense
Neither of these teams is elite in terms of red-zone offense, which also supports our Under for this game. The Pats red-zone TD percentage is 59.46% (18th) while the Dirty Birds is 60.71% (15th).
This should mean that there will be lots of field goal attempts and very few touchdowns in this game tonight. Again, that should also support the Under.
New England’s Defense
This Patriots defense is an elite unit. They rank 2nd in the NFL in points per game allowed (17.7) so we don’t think Atlanta will have much success against them. New England also ranks 4th in yards per play allowed and 6th in yards per pass allowed. Sure sounds like an Under!
The Unders have done well lately in Primetime games and we think that trend continues tonight in this Thursday night matchup. We think the Pats win this one 24-17 so take the Under! Best of luck with all your Thursday action!