NFL bettors had to have been happy with the results of Week 13. Why? Because the weirdest thing that happened was that the Lions were finally able to win a game. The Lions got off the schneid with a last-second win over the Vikings, who lost as seven-point favorites. That outright upset was notable, but it paled in comparison to the others we have seen throughout the year during which double-digit underdogs have won.
The NFL had three double-digit dogs in Week 13, but all three were able to win. Actually, they did one better. They covered, too, and so did the Chiefs, who were favored by 9.5 points over the Raiders. The week was, strangely, normal after a few crazy ones.
But as always, gamblers have to be ready for anything. As such, looking at the latest odds, trends, results and injuries is still critical for bettors, as it helps to identify underrated teams that can be trusted outright or against the spread.
In Week 14, the lines are once against tight. Only two games opened as double-digit favorites. The Packers (-12.5) and Chargers (-10.5) are favored over the Beras and Giants respectively this week.
In case you’re wondering why the Chargers are favored by that much, it doesn’t have a lot to do with their 41-22 win over the Bengals. It’s more about the Giants, who are dealing with quarterback injuries. Daniel Jones (neck) isn’t expected to play this week while Mike Glennon (concussion) is questionable. If neither can go, Jake Fromm would be the next man up. Since he has never started, the books are using this opportunity to inflate the Chargers’ spread.
This is a good case study for how much injuries can impact games. That’s why bettors need to have up-to-date information on guys like Kyler Murray and Julio Jones that could cause spreads to move. Often, identifying critical injuries and absences is the best way to create value, especially if you bet the line at the right time before it moves.
NFL odds for Week 14
Below are the latest Week 14 NFL odds, including point spreads, money lines and over-under totals for every game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last updated: Wednesday, Dec. 8.
NFL point spreads Week 14
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings||MIN -3|
|Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs||KC -9.5|
|New Orleans Saints at New York Jets||NO -5.5|
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans||TEN -8.5|
|Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns||CLE -2.5|
|Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers||CAR -3|
|Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team||DAL -4|
|Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans||SEA -7.5|
|Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos||DEN -8|
|New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers||LAC -10.5|
|San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals||SF -1|
|Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||TB -3|
|Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers||GB -12.5|
|Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals||ARI -3|
NFL money lines Week 14
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings||PIT +142|
|Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs||LV +350|
|New Orleans Saints at New York Jets||NYJ +190|
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans||JAX +350|
|Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns||BAL +120|
|Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers||ATL +130|
|Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team||WAS +162|
|Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans||HOU +295|
|Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos||DET +300|
|New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers||NYG +410|
|San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -112|
|Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||BUF +146|
|Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers||CHI +500|
|Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals||LAR +134|
NFL over-unders Week 14
|Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings||44.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs||48.5|
|New Orleans Saints at New York Jets||43.5|
|Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans||43.5|
|Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns||41.5|
|Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers||43.5|
|Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team||47.5|
|Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans||42|
|Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos||42|
|New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers||44.5|
|San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals||47.5|
|Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers||52.5|
|Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers||44|
|Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals||51.5|
NFL best bets for Week 14
Cardinals (-3) vs. Rams
The Rams certainly looked better in Week 13 than they did during their previous three-game losing streak, but it’s important to note that they were the Jaguars. They aren’t likely to have as much success against the Cardinals.
Arizona has played well all year and has already knocked off the Rams once, by a score of 37-20. They may not win in that sort of blowout fashion this time, but they are rightfully favored in this contest.
Only the Packers (10-2 against the spread) have been better than the Cardinals ATS this season. Arizona is 9-3 ATS and, even more incredibly, has almost always covered in games that they have won. This season, they are 9-1 ATS when they win. The only time they failed to cover a spread in a game that they won came in Week 2 against the Vikings. If you’ll remember, the Vikings missed a last-second chip-shot field goal in that one to gift the win to the Cardinals.
All that’s to say — if you believe that the Cardinals are going to win, then you should bet them to cover the spread; they almost always do.
There’s no reason to expect the Cardinals to lose this contest. They’re getting healthier, as both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins played against the Bears. Murray, in particular, looked healthy, so that bodes well for the Cardinals.
Meanwhile, the Rams are still jelling as they get used to life without Robert Woods and life with Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller. Matthew Stafford has also dealt with a nagging back injury, so that’s worth considering in this one.
The Cardinals should also be motivated to win. They will clinch a playoff berth if they win and in reality, they will basically wrap up the NFC West, barring a disaster. They would have a three-game division lead with a win over the Rams with four games to play. Since they would have the tiebreaker over the Rams, Arizona would have to lose every game down the stretch and see the Rams win every contest to lose the top spot in the division. That won’t happen, as the Cardinals get to play the Lions in Week 15.
With the motivational angle and season-long ATS trends in tow, the Cardinals are a nice pick here. BetQL agrees with us, as their model believes that the Cardinals should be favored by four points. That means we’re getting a full point of value which could prove critical on a small spread like this.
Browns (-2.5) vs. Ravens
The Ravens are a team to fade right now. Why? Because they are dealing with so many injuries.
The Ravens lost their best defensive back Marlon Humphrey for the season, as he suffered a torn pec in the Ravens’ loss to the Steelers. Baltimore was already without Marcus Peters, who was injured preseason, so the team will have to play the rest of the way without three starters in the secondary, as safety Deshone Elliott is also on IR.
How bad is the defensive back situation with the Ravens? Well, it got to the point that John Harbaugh decided to try to end the game against the Steelers on a two-point conversion because of it.
“We were pretty much out of corners at that point in time, so it was an opportunity to try to win the game right there,” Harbaugh said of the two-point conversion.
Obviously, the Ravens will have a week to rest up, heal and add talent at corner, but those words are still not encouraging. And it’s something of which the Browns might be able to take advantage.
Cleveland doesn’t have the best passing offense on the planet right now, but they have some key advantages here. First, they are coming off a bye, so they are much better-rested than the Steelers. Second, their last opponent in Week 12 was . . . the Ravens. So, the Browns have had two weeks to prepare a new game plan, self-scout and figure out how to beat Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Ravens just played a grueling game against their archrival, the Steelers.
If Kevin Stefanski has a good game plan, the Browns should win. Baker Mayfield threw for 247 yards and a TD last time against the Ravens and he could have another strong outing given the issues the Ravens are currently having in the secondary. Getting them as less than three-point favorites seems like a nice value.
The pros appear to agree. According to BetQL, the Browns have a 34 percent edge in terms of money bet on them. The Browns currently account for 61 percent of the tickets sold, but they account for a whopping 95 percent of the money wagered on the game.
Essentially, the high rollers are going with the Browns and are placing a lot of money on them. Advantage, Cleveland.
Falcons (+3) at Panthers
If you look at the Falcons’ numbers this season, a trend stands out. Essentially, they’re a typical 5-7 team. They have done well against lower-level teams and done poorly against higher-level teams. They can compete with the dregs of the league but not the upper-echelon.
As such, it’s no surprise that the Falcons’ wins this season have almost exclusively come against teams that rank among the league’s worst in terms of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
This year, the Falcons have faced five teams that rank in the bottom-10 league-wide in DVOA. They are the Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers and Jaguars. In those games, the Falcons have a 4-1 record. Their only win against a team ranked outside of the bottom-10 came against the Saints in Trevor Siemian’s first start of the season.
Here’s a look at the Falcons’ results to date.
|1||vs. Eagles||15th||L, 32-6|
|2||at Buccaneers||1st||L, 48-25|
|3||at Giants||24th||W, 17-14|
|4||vs. Washington||21st||L, 34-30|
|5||vs. Jets||28th||W, 27-20|
|7||at Dolphins||25th||W, 30-28|
|8||vs. Panthers||27th||L, 19-13|
|9||at Saints||13th||W, 27-25|
|10||at Cowboys||4th||L, 43-3|
|11||vs. Patriots||2nd||L, 25-0|
|12||at Jaguars||30th||W, 21-14|
|13||vs. Buccaneers||1st||L, 30-17|
What does this all mean? Well, the Panthers rank 27th in DVOA this season, so it might be harder than expected for the Panthers to compete with the Falcons.
Of course, it’s worth pointing out that the Panthers are the lone team among the bottom-10 DVOA rankings that has beaten the Falcons. That said, it’s worth noting that was the first game after Calvin Ridley left Atlanta to deal with mental health concerns and Russell Gage was out of action as well. As such, the Falcons were very thin at receiver, so it was hard for them to do much offensively. That helps to explain the low-scoring nature of the game.
The Falcons should at least have Gage in this game, so that will give them a bit of a boost. And while they’re not playing against Sam Darnold at quarterback, Cam Newton looked awful in his last start against the Dolphins in Week 12. The Falcons may be able to rattle him like the Dolphins did.
It’s also worth noting that the Falcons haven’t lost two games to the Panthers in the same season since 2013. They should be ready to bounce back, so getting them as three-point underdogs in a decent-looking matchup is a bet worth making.