Free NFL Pick for Thursday Night Football

We lost our Free NFL Pick on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football. Kyler Murray had plenty of chances but threw some errant passes at the worst possible times. Oh well, time to get back to our winning ways on Thursday Night Football.

Kansas City Chiefs / Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 54.5

Twitter: @Chiefs

GULP! Hold your nose if you have to when making this bet on the Under! We know it’s difficult to take the Under with two high-powered offenses that love to run at a fast pace. However, this total has been bet up so much that there is now a ton of value on the Under.

The books opened this total at 49.5 last Sunday night. Our math formulas agreed with this opening, as our number on this game is 49. Ever since the opener, the sportsbooks have been flooded with nothing but Over money.

Since the line has gone up 5 whole points, we’ll take the Under in this one. This total has sailed past the key numbers of 51, 52, and 54. That’s too much of an adjustment in our opinion. Here are a couple of other reasons why we like the Under.

2 Underrated Defenses

Though both of these teams are known for their prolific offenses, their defenses are highly underrated. The Chiefs defense had a horrible start to the season, but they have settled in nicely ever since. Kansas City ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency and 5th in EPA per play allowed since Week 6. The Chiefs have the horses on defense to at least slow down Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense.

The Chargers have struggled against the run all season long but they’ve done a great job of defending the pass. The Chiefs only run the football on 37.37% of snaps so they may not take advantage of the Chargers’ main defensive weakness. Brandon Staley runs a bend but don’t break type of shell defense that confused Kansas City a bit back in Week 3.

Just how well does Los Angeles defend the pass? They rank 8th in yards per pass allowed and 4th in passing yards allowed per game. That will come in handy against the high-powered Chiefs offense. Both Asante Samuel and Derwin James have a shot to return for this game, even though they are both listed as questionable on the injury report.

Penalties

Nothing kills drives faster than unnecessary penalties. Both of these teams have shown a lack of disciple in this area this year. The Chiefs are flagged for 55.4 penalty yards per game (19th). The Chargers average 61.1 penalty yards per game (27th).

All it takes is one big penalty to derail a solid drive. If this happens a few times in this game, it will help our case for the Under.

In the end, we see this being a 27-24 type of football game. Keep in mind that only 54 points were scored when these two teams met back in Week 3. Both defenses have improved a ton since then. Take the Under! Best of luck!

Skybox Journalist

Mike has been involved with sports for over 30 years. He played college baseball and has been betting on sports for more than 20 years. He has a degree in Sports Psychology and covers the NFL and College Football for SkyBox Capping Club.