Premier League spots are worth tens — if not hundreds — of millions of dollars, so when it comes to promotion and relegation in the English top flight, everything is on the line.
Entering the stretch run of the 2021-22 season, the battles for places in next season’s Premier League are heating up.
In the Premier League, relegation appears to be a six-team race at the moment, with at least one side in particular looking near certain to suffer the drop.
In the second division Championship, there are two automatic promotion spots to the Premier League up for grabs, plus four more places in the promotion playoff, which will decide the third team to play in the Premier League next season. Fulham is dominating the Championship with a formidable attack that is on pace to set season-long scoring records, but there’s still a long way to go with 46 matches played by each team in the Championship regular season.
Premier League relegation: Which teams will go down?
Norwich City and Watford have some ground to make up, sitting five and three points away from safety, respectively. FiveThirtyEight is not giving them much of a chance with Norwich City tabbed at 96 percent to go down, and the Hornets are at 81 percent.
The table below is updated as of games through Monday, March 7. Relegation probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.
|14.||Newcastle||28||26||-16||@ SOU, Mar. 10|
|15.||Brentford||27||28||-15||vs. BUR, Mar. 12|
|16.||Leeds United||23||27||-32||vs. AVL, Mar. 10|
|17.||Everton||22||25||-18||vs. WOL, Mar. 13|
|18.*||Burnley||21||26||-14||@ BRE, Mar. 12|
|19.*||Watford||19||27||-23||@ WOL, Mar. 10|
|20.*||Norwich City||17||27||-42||vs. CHE, Mar. 10|
* = The bottom three teams are relegated to the second-tier Championship.
Newcastle, under new ownership, spent big money to improve their squad in the January transfer window and it’s paying off with five wins and a draw in their last six, seeing their probability of relegation slashed from 66 percent to just eight percent.
Things were also momentarily looking up for Burnley after topping Tottenham and Brighton, but two straight losses see their chances of going down pegged at 38 percent. The Clarets have made up several of their games in hand, but they’re still in with a fighting chance.
Leeds and Everton started in a much more advantageous position earlier this season, but that cushion has worn away and they’ve been sucked into the vortex. Brentford sit a little more comfortably, and they are looking forward to the head-to-head matchups that remain (four of their final 10 matches come against teams below it in the table).
Premier League promotion race
With three teams dropping from the Premier League, three teams must rise up to replace them.
The Championship, the second tier of professional soccer in England, automatically sends the top two finishers to the Premier League. The third team is chosen via a promotion playoff, with the teams finishing 3rd through 6th qualifying for the four-team knockout tournament.
That Playoff Final is a massive spectacle, with the income generated in the Premier League proving a game changer for teams stuck in the Championship. The match is said to be worth upwards of $100 million, with the winner advancing to the Premier League and reaping the rewards of the top flight’s revenue sharing and parachute payments.
The table below is updated as of games through Saturday, March 5. Promotion probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.
*The top two teams are automatically promoted to the Premier League.
**Teams finishing 3rd-6th qualify for the promotion playoffs.