Premier League relegation: Who is going down to the Championship and favorites in promotion race

Premier League spots are worth tens — if not hundreds — of millions of dollars, so when it comes to promotion and relegation in the English top flight, everything is on the line.

Entering the stretch run of the 2021-22 season, the battles for places in next season’s Premier League are heating up.

In the Premier League, relegation appears to be a three-team race at the moment, with at least one side in particular looking near certain to suffer the drop. 

In the second division Championship, there are two automatic promotion spots to the Premier League up for grabs, plus four more places in the promotion playoff, which will decide the third team to play in the Premier League next season.

MORE: Premier League title & Champions League races

Premier League relegation: Which teams are going down?

Norwich City are seven points from safety and are almost assured of going down, according to FiveThirtyEight (>99 percent). Watford are only three points from safety, but they’ve already played 30 matches which is why they’re tabbed with an 84 percent chance of relegation.

MORE: Newcastle’s January transfer window moves

The table below is updated through Saturday, April 2. Relegation probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.

Place Team PTS GP GD Next Match Relegation
probability
14. Brentford 33 31 -11 vs. WHU, Apr. 10 <1%
15. Newcastle 31 29 -17 @ TOT, Apr. 3 4%
16. Leeds United 30 31 -33 @ WAT, Apr. 9 24%
17. Everton 25 27 -18 @ WHU, Apr. 3 31%
18.* Watford 22 30 -28 vs. LEE, Apr. 9 84%
19.* Burnley 21 28 -18 vs. EVE, Apr. 6 56%
20.* Norwich City 18 30 -45 vs. BUR, Apr. 10 >99%

* = The bottom three teams are relegated to the second-tier Championship.

Newcastle, under new ownership, spent big money to improve their squad in the January transfer window and it paid off with a nine-match unbeaten streak that saw their probability of relegation slashed from 66 percent to just four percent. But two straight losses have kept them close to the bottom bunch.

Things were also momentarily looking up for Burnley after topping Tottenham and Brighton, but four straight losses saw their relegation chances shoot up to 56 percent. The Clarets still have games in hand, giving them a fighting chance.

Leeds and Everton were in decent position earlier this season, but that cushion in the table wore away and they have been sucked into the vortex. However, a win for Everton and two stoppage-time wins and a draw for Leeds have given them some breathing room (knocking Leeds’ chances of going down from 39 to 22 percent). Everton still have several games in hand.

Premier League promotion race

With three teams dropping from the Premier League, three teams must rise up to replace them.

The Championship, the second tier of professional soccer in England, automatically sends the top two finishers to the Premier League. The third team is determined via a promotion playoff, with the teams finishing 3rd through 6th qualifying for the four-team knockout tournament.

That Playoff Final is a massive spectacle, with the income generated in the Premier League proving a game changer for teams stuck in the Championship. The match is said to be worth upwards of $100 million, with the winner advancing to the Premier League and reaping the rewards of the top flight’s revenue sharing and parachute payments.

The table below is updated as of games through Saturday, April 2. Promotion probabilities via FiveThirtyEight.

Place Team PTS GP GD Promotion
Probability
1.* Fulham 80 38 +60 >99%
2.* Bournemouth 72 37 +29 93%
3.** Huddersfield 66 40 +9 11%
4.** Luton Town 64 39 +14 20%
5.** Middlesbrough 62 38 +10 23%
6.** Blackburn 62 40 +10 6%
7. Nottingham Forest 61 37 +21 23%
8. Sheffield United 61 39 +11 18%
9. QPR 59 39 +4 1%
10. Millwall 58 39 +3 3%

*The top two teams are automatically promoted to the Premier League.
**Teams finishing 3rd-6th qualify for the promotion playoffs.

Fulham is dominating the Championship with a formidable attack that is on pace to set season-long scoring records, but there are still several matches to go with 46 matches played by each team in the Championship regular season.

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